Some big matchups between Tarleton State, Angelo State and West Texas A&M
Home games
TAMC - 3-1 TWU, TAMK
UTPB - 3-1 ENMU, MSU, CU
TSU - 3-1 ASU
TWU - TAMK, Dallas Baptist, Ok Baptist
WTAM - TSU, ASU
WNMU - CU, MSU
ENMU - ASU, TSU
Away games
TWU - 1-3 TAMC
ENMU - 1-3 UTPB
ASU - 1-3 TSU, ENMU, WTAM
TAMK - TWU, TAMC
MSU - UTPB, WNMU
TSU - WTAM, ENMU
CU - WNMU, UTPB
Home teams started off strong on Tuesday.
Football Matchups
Midwestern State at UT-Permian Basin
This looks like the mismatch of the week. The Mustangs are coming off a big 38-17 win over the 2017 national runner-up West Florida Argonauts. MSU took a 24-17 lead with 9:18 left in the game, then the defense got two turnovers - one on downs, setting up the offense with a short field for a 40 yard TD drive, and then closed out the scoring with a 59 yard interception return, giving the Mustangs a hard fought 38-17 win. Meanwhile, UTPB started off slowly for the second time in a row, and never could quite get over the hump, falling on the road to Northern Michigan, 22-27.
Layton Rabb is on pace for a monster year. Despite sitting out the second half in week one, he is averaging 303 yards per game with 8 TDs, 0 Ints and a 199.0 QB rating. Juwan Johnson (13-190-1), Xavier Land (14-127-2), Anthony Tennison (4-109-2) and Bryce Martinez (4-84-2) give him plenty of quality targets. Vincent Johnson is averaging 8.8 yards per carry, and Adrian Seales had 96 yards last week after missing the season opener. Donaven Lloyd and Nicholas Gabriel are productive and ready when called upon. Sir'Vell Ford leads the defense with 19 tackles and Paul Manus has 2 Ints as well.
The Falcons look like they are an improved squad. They played Texas Southern pretty tough and almost came away with a long D2 road win. In both games, UTPB mounted late comebacks, outscoring TSU and NMU 26-10 in the 4th quarters, but could not overcome double digit third quarter deficits (21 point to TSU and 13 to NMU). Sam Allen has been the better QB, 345 yards, 4 TDs, 0 Ints, but is completing just 47% of his passes. He's also the second leading rusher (54 yards) and has the only rushing TD. Ben Galaviz, Kristian Brown and Mitchell Leonard have combined for 19 receptions, 280 yards and 4 TDs. Marquis Simmons is the leading ground gainer (65.5 yards per game on just 9 carries per game). John O'Kelley has been a one man wrecking crew on defense - 3rd in the LSC with 20 tackles, and leading with 8.5 TFL and 6 sacks. He'll need a lot of help this week.
Tale of the tape
Midwestern State - UT Permian Basin
46.5 - Scoring - 19.0
14.5 - Points Allowed - 26.5
182.5 - Rushing Yards - 124
356.5 - Passing Yards - 188
130 - Rushing Yards Allowed - 232.5
212 - Passing Yards Allowed - 176
Layton Rabb is looking like a Harlon Hill candidate, completing 70% of his passes, with 8 TDs and 0 Ints and QB rating of 199.0 - despite sitting out the entire second half in week one. Look for the Mustang running game to improve on its numbers and for Mr. Touchdown (Vincent Johnson) to find the end zone and the defense to continue to improve. Mustangs cruise in this one, 49-14.
Tarleton State at West Texas A&M
The Texans were hoping to build off a solid opening week win with a contest against Stephen F. Austin from the FCS Southland Conference. Mother Nature had other ideas, with the game begin cancelled due to stormy weather. On one hand, you never want a game cancelled, but it does give the team a week to regroup after a solid opening week win over Delta State. Ben Holmes had a nice start to the season, 196 yards and 2 TDs despite just 16 pass attempts. Zimari Manning could not have asked for a better game with 144 yards and 2 receiving TDs on just 3 receptions. Daniel McCants (145 yards) and D'Anthony Hopkins (67 yards) each had rushing TDs. Not to be outdone, Jai Edwards and Prince Robinson each had interception returns for TDs.
WT took advantage of playing NAIA Oklahoma Panhandle State and had their biggest scoring out in two years. Despite playing OPSU last week, the Buffs are still last in the LSC with 295 yards per game. Despite trying to emphasize the running game more than in the recent past, WT is only averaging 109.5 yds per game and 3.4 per carry. Mitch Hood at QB has had some struggles, averaging 185 yards per game, a 1-3 TD-Int ratio and 104.3 QB rating. Duke Carter is averaging 5 yards per carry and 65 per game but only has 26 carries in two weeks. Defensively, the big surprise has been Tobias Harris. The true freshman has three interceptions, including a pick six last week.
WT took advantage of playing NAIA Oklahoma Panhandle State and had their biggest scoring out in two years. Despite playing OPSU last week, the Buffs are still last in the LSC with 295 yards per game. Despite trying to emphasize the running game more than in the recent past, WT is only averaging 109.5 yds per game and 3.4 per carry. Mitch Hood at QB has had some struggles, averaging 185 yards per game, a 1-3 TD-Int ratio and 104.3 QB rating. Duke Carter is averaging 5 yards per carry and 65 per game but only has 26 carries in two weeks. Defensively, the big surprise has been Tobias Harris. The true freshman has three interceptions, including a pick six last week.
Tale of the tape
Tarleton State - West Texas A&M
44.0 - Scoring - 24.5
13.0 - Points Allowed - 12.0
252 - Rushing Yards - 109.5
196 - Passing Yards - 185.5
73 - Rushing Yards Allowed - 149.5
253 - Passing Yards Allowed - 170.5
The Texans have to overcome some distractions (legal and last week's cancellation), but should have enough firepower to win this one. Tarleton 28-14.
Texas A&M-Commerce at Eastern New Mexico
Prior to the season, this was a game many had circled as an important one for playoff implications and conference standings. Some of that luster is gone, with the defending national champion Lions a little slow out of the gate, and the Greyhounds playoff chances almost assuredly already gone.
Our key to the game will be how well the Lions defend the run. The trend early this year is ENMU falling behind early in games, and unable or unwilling to implement much passing to try and catch up. The Lions will try and get more production out of the run game, and with ENMU allowing 245 yards weekly, they stand a good chance. Neither team has defended the pass especially well, but the advantage this week should be TAMC's due to the ENMU offense.
Individually, Paul Terry has stepped into the lead back role for ENMU, averaging 115.5 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. Preston Wheeler is throwing for 241 yards per game, but only has a 4-3 TD-Int ratio and a 121.2 QB rating. Brucks Saathoff is getting 10 tackles per game, while Michael Onuoha has 6.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks. Brad Hardin leads ENMU with 9.5 tackles per game and has 2 TFL.
Our key to the game will be how well the Lions defend the run. The trend early this year is ENMU falling behind early in games, and unable or unwilling to implement much passing to try and catch up. The Lions will try and get more production out of the run game, and with ENMU allowing 245 yards weekly, they stand a good chance. Neither team has defended the pass especially well, but the advantage this week should be TAMC's due to the ENMU offense.
Individually, Paul Terry has stepped into the lead back role for ENMU, averaging 115.5 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. Preston Wheeler is throwing for 241 yards per game, but only has a 4-3 TD-Int ratio and a 121.2 QB rating. Brucks Saathoff is getting 10 tackles per game, while Michael Onuoha has 6.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks. Brad Hardin leads ENMU with 9.5 tackles per game and has 2 TFL.
Tale of the tape
Texas A&M-Commerce - Eastern New Mexico
32.0 - Scoring - 17.5
26.5 - Points Allowed - 32.5
108 - Rushing Yards - 264
263 - Passing Yards - 43
93.5 - Rushing Yards Allowed - 245
238 - Passing Yards Allowed - 238.5
This could be the week for the Lions to have that breakout game (and if not this week, we'll keep saying that until it happens). Even if they don't break out this week, they should still have enough to overcome a disappointing Greyhound squad. Texas A&M Commerce 38-21.
Game of the Week
Texas A&M-Kingsville at Angelo State
Angelo makes home debut - Charles Bryce, San Angelo Standard Times
Ignore the numbers from last week's games for these two teams. The Javelinas mauled NAIA Texas Wesleyan, while the Rams lost to FCS ACU as expected. Their games on opening week probably give a better indication.
The Rams had a 471-313 edge in yards gained and a 3-2 turnover advantage, but still needed a last minute TD to pull out a 24-17 win over Western Oregon. Why was the game so close? Special teams (3 missed field goals) and not fully capitalizing on the first two turnovers (FG and missed FG after getting INTs). The Rams seem to have settled on Charlie Rotherham at QB, but Payne Sullins has also played in both games. Tyrese Nathan is averaging 111 yards per game rushing and Keke Chism is 3rd in the LSC with 75.5 receiving yards per game. Markus Jones has 7.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks through two weeks. Grant Aschenbeck leads the league with 23 tackles, and Hunter Kyle has 2 interceptions (both in week one).
The Javelinas had a slight 364-351 in regulation yardage gained (just 56 rushing) and a 3-2 turnover advantage. But special teams miscues (missed FG, bad snap on PAT) allowed Texas A&M-Commerce to tie the game with 20 seconds left in the game. Another miscue on a PAT gave the defending national champions the final one point margin. Koy Detmer has been a pleasant surprise in the first two weeks. He is second in the LSC with 245 yards per game, despite sitting out the second half last week, with 5 TDs and a 142.0 QB rating. He has spread the ball around with Aaron Dilworth (9-118-2) and Ty Chisum (5-82-2 in one game) emerging as productive targets. Nick Pelrean (66.5 yds/gm) and Jeff Carr (63 yds/gm) have the bulk of production at running back, but Luis Lopez will have a breakout game at some point as well. Defensively, Caleb Valentine leads the team in TFL with 4.5, but Brandon Jones and Devonte Williams have 4 and 3 respectively. Williams also has 3 pass breakups and an interception to pace the secondary, which looks much improved early in the season.
The Rams had a 471-313 edge in yards gained and a 3-2 turnover advantage, but still needed a last minute TD to pull out a 24-17 win over Western Oregon. Why was the game so close? Special teams (3 missed field goals) and not fully capitalizing on the first two turnovers (FG and missed FG after getting INTs). The Rams seem to have settled on Charlie Rotherham at QB, but Payne Sullins has also played in both games. Tyrese Nathan is averaging 111 yards per game rushing and Keke Chism is 3rd in the LSC with 75.5 receiving yards per game. Markus Jones has 7.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks through two weeks. Grant Aschenbeck leads the league with 23 tackles, and Hunter Kyle has 2 interceptions (both in week one).
The Javelinas had a slight 364-351 in regulation yardage gained (just 56 rushing) and a 3-2 turnover advantage. But special teams miscues (missed FG, bad snap on PAT) allowed Texas A&M-Commerce to tie the game with 20 seconds left in the game. Another miscue on a PAT gave the defending national champions the final one point margin. Koy Detmer has been a pleasant surprise in the first two weeks. He is second in the LSC with 245 yards per game, despite sitting out the second half last week, with 5 TDs and a 142.0 QB rating. He has spread the ball around with Aaron Dilworth (9-118-2) and Ty Chisum (5-82-2 in one game) emerging as productive targets. Nick Pelrean (66.5 yds/gm) and Jeff Carr (63 yds/gm) have the bulk of production at running back, but Luis Lopez will have a breakout game at some point as well. Defensively, Caleb Valentine leads the team in TFL with 4.5, but Brandon Jones and Devonte Williams have 4 and 3 respectively. Williams also has 3 pass breakups and an interception to pace the secondary, which looks much improved early in the season.
Tale of the tape
Texas A&M-Kingsville - Angelo State
44.0 - Scoring - 24.0
23.5 - Points Allowed - 29.0
194.5 - Rushing Yards - 141
264 - Passing Yards - 230.5
51 - Rushing Yards Allowed - 92
180.5 - Passing Yards Allowed - 323
Who can limit mistakes, especially on special teams? Will the weather be a factor? Those are the two big (related) questions (I know, pretty obvious), and impossible to predict. What if the game comes down to the kicking game (and it very well could)? In that case, the edge goes to the Javelinas, where Julio De La Garza is 10/10 on PATs and 2/3 on FGs, while Connor Flanigan is 4/5 on PATs and just 2/5 on FGs. This game looks very winnable for both teams. Gonna go against the grain a bit and take the Javelinas, 31-28.
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