New Mexico Highlands at Midwestern State
Mismatch of the week
NMHU was 3-8 last season, with wins over teams with a combined record of 9-23. Three of the losses were by 7 or fewer points, however. They were picked to finish 9th in the 10 team Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference and had no players selected the preseason all conference team. Midwestern State should be able to use this game to work out some kinks against a live (but overmatched) defense.
MSU 56-14
Eastern New Mexico at Colorado State-Pueblo
CSUP played their first season since 1985 last year, and were respectable finishing the season 4-6, and narrowing losing two others. Chase Vaughn leads the defense, which gave up 21.1 points (4th in the RMAC) and 355.7 yards per game (7th) last season. The offense struggled, gaining just 229 yards (last) and scoring just 15.1 points (7th) per game. They struggled passing (163.4 yards - 9th) and stopping the pass (241 yds - 8th), which doesn't bode well agains the Greyhounds. Offensively, they didn't run the ball well either (66 yds per game - 9th) but limited opponents to just 115 yds per game (6th). This should be a good challenge for ENMU to start their 2008 campaign, and we look for their passing game to have improved from 2008.
ENMU 28-24
Southwestern Oklahoma at Emporia State
Emporia State, 4-7 last year, was picked to finish 8th in the 10 team MIAA for 2009. Three of their losses were by one score. Former Northeastern State offensive coordinator, Garin Higgins, is 7-15 in his two seasons as head coach at ESU. Senior Andre El-Sloan returns for his third year at QB, and added Juco All American La'Darrian Page at RB. The Hornets were effective running the ball (134 yds per game), but struggled a bit in the passing game (161 yds per game, 11 Ints). Four offensive linemen who started at least 5 games return as well. The defense (5th in the MIAA) returns 3 of the top 4 tacklers from last year. Teams were able to run against ESU (166 yds per game, 7th), while the pass defense gave up 187 yds per game (4th). It will be interesting to see what kind of running game SWO is able to muster in their opener. Equally interesting will be their run defense against what appears to be an improved running offense for ESU.
Emporia State 35-21
Arkansas Tech at Northeastern State
The Wonderboys, 5-5 in 2008, return 18 starters for the 2009 season - 7 on offense, 8 on defense and 3 on special teams. One newcomer will be QB Nick Graziano, a transfer from Nevada. ATU must also replace two of their top three receivers. The Wonderboys averaged 30.5 points and 446 (178 rushing and 268 passing) yards per game last year. Defensively, the top 6 tacklers return. That should help them improve on last season's 33.6 points and 461 yards allowed per game. Teams rushed for 220 yds and passed for 241 yds per game. Northeastern State is ready to put 2008 behind them. It should be noted that four of their losses were by a combined total of 12 points - they easily could have finished 2008 with a 5-6 record. The offense was 12th in points scored and last in total offense last season. They do return their top two QBs, and RBs, but must replace Jarrett Byers and Damian Henderson at WR. Defensively was a bit better, with NSU finishing 11th in points allowed and 10th in total defense. Three LSC North honorees return and will be joined by a few transfers that will push for playing time.
Last year's game was the sixth straight win (22-3) in the series for the Wonderboys. The 3 points and 287 yards allowed were season bests. The Riverhawks led 3-2 at halftime, but ATU scored TDs on all 3 of their second half possessions to take the win. Looks like 7 in a row for the Wonderboys 35-21
Henderson State at Southeastern Oklahoma
The Reddies were 5-5 last season, losing three games by a TD or less (including a 4 point loss to #10 Valdosta State). They scored 32.8 points per game, passing for 330 yds and rushing for 118. The defense gave up 28 points and 434 yards per game. Keep and eye on senior QB Roch Charpentier threw for 3,157 yds and 25 TDs.
Southeastern Oklahoma will be looking to avoid last season's slow start, which found them at 1-4 after five weeks, and getting outscored by a 81-214 margin. The quarterback position is a bit of a question mark, but with Baylen Laury back and joined by Josh Johnson, the running game should be improved. When SOSU does throw the ball, there are several good receivers to choose from, with Daniel Nichols and Jerrod Temple leading the way. On defense, the secondary will be challenged. The Savage Storm did lead the LSC with 18 Ints last year, with Bernard Daniel and Johnny Seals each picking off three.
SOSU finished strong last year, and if they get decent QB play and don't turn the ball over, they should keep that momentum. SOSU 28-21
Arkansas-Monticello at Tarleton State
The Bollweevils were 7-4 in 2008, with three losses by a TD or less (including a 6 point loss at Delta State). UAM scored 34.3 points per game, while giving up 29.1. They led the GSC with 499 yards per game and were remarkably balanced (244 yds rushing, 255 passing). The defense gave up 393 per game, 101 on the ground, and 292 through the air. The player to watch is junior quarterback Scott Buisson. All he did last year was rush for 120 yds per game (along with 12 TDs), and throw for 2,700 yds and 25 TDs. UAM also has Johnny Polite (628 yds rushing) and WRs Tim Harris and Clarence Denmark (113 combined receptions, 1,737 yds, 20 TDs). For the defense, seven players with 44 or more tackles return.
The Texans welcome back preseason LSC South offensive player year Roderick Smith, two year starting QB Scott Grantham and WR Devin Guinn, but must replace three starters on the line. Tarleton's offense was just as balanced as the Bollweevil's (188 yds passing, 187 rushing) if not as prolific. The Texan's had the top pass defense in the LSC, giving up just 197 yds per game, while teams rushed for 122. The secondary lost 3 starters from last year, so look for the newcomers to be challenged.
This should be a great opening game for both teams, and has the potential to be a shootout. UAM comes into the game with most of the playmakers intact from a big year. Look for them to put the Texan defense on their heels, and their defense to do just enough to escape Stephenville with a win. UAM 38-31
Texas A&M-Commerce at Angelo State
This is probably the most important game this week, national rankings aside. This is a matchup of two teams that start off in the middle of the initial LSC Scoop Power Poll, and cannot afford to lose these types of games. Both teams were in the bottom half of the LSC offensively and in the middle to upper half defensively. Last year, the Lions sacked Will Mezger on a fourth and goal play, preserving a 13-10 win in Commerce.
Angelo State welcomes back Josh Neiswander at QB. Neiswander, who passed for 1,900 yards in 2007, was injured in the Rams' season opener against Texas State, and the Rams struggled all season. Michael Simpers (also out last year with an injury) looks to replace Daniel Thomas at RB, and Jeremy Hill and Garrett Tidwell will get the nod at WR. The Rams defense improved greatly in 2008, and returns 6 of their front 7, but must replace 3 in the secondary.
Texas A&M-Commerce will have new faces all around the field. Offensively, Alabama State transfer Reid Herchenbach should get the start at QB., while West Virginia transfer Jetavious Best and returnee Marcus Graham will look to replace Nabil El Amin. The leading returning receivers are Ernest Quander and Taylor Fore, but with a more wide open offense, look for several others to be involved as well, including Sophomore Adam Jones, Freshman Jordan Wright, and Freshman TE TJ Nielsen. The defense returns a few more familiar faces, including DL William Green and LB Chad Washington, both 1st team LSC North picks last season.
While ther will probably be more offense than last years game, this will probably still be low scoring. Both teams could really use an early season confidence boost and conference win. We'll take the Rams at home. ASU 21-14
East Central at #23 Nebraska-Omaha
The Mavericks were a playoff team last year, dropping a first round game to fellow MIAA team Pitt State 33-21. They finished the season 7-4, dropping contests to Pitt State (twice), NWMSU and Truman State. Primarily a running offense, UNO led the MIAA with 270 yds per game. The passing game was 9th (142 per game), leaving them third in total offense (412 yds) and 4th in scoring (30.9). They have to replace their QB, top RB, and do not have a WR that caught a pass last year, but they do return all five offensive line starters. The defense was also 4th in points allowed (24.8), and total yards (351). They allowed 154 yds rushing and 197 passing.
East Central will try to be a more balanced team in 2009 - over the last three seasons, they have gained fewer yards rushing than any other LSC team. A healthy (and improved) offensive line will help, and having Marcus Johnson back at QB will keep teams from loading up on the run. The Tigers will need to show to greatly improve (last in points allowed and rushing yards, 12th in total yards allowed, and 5th in passing yards allowed).
ECU's offense should keep this from being a complete blowout, but the Mavs should win 42-28
Central Oklahoma at #7 Pittsburg State
The Bronchos open the 2009 season against one of the perennial powers in D2 football - the Pitt State Gorillas. Led by head coach Chuck Broyles (193-41-2 career record), the Gorillas finished last season 11-2, with both losses coming to rival Northwest Missouri. Offensively, PSU averaged 35.5 points and 433 yards per game in 2008. As usual, the running game was very strong (235 yds per game) while the passing game was solid (198 yds per game). They will have to replace most of last years starters, including QB Mark Smith, RB Caleb Farabi, their three WRs and four offensive line starters. The defense returns 8 starters from a squad that allowed 23.5 points and 321 yards per game led by All American safety Alex Kuhlman.
UCO comes into the game riding a 7 game winning streak and ranked #16 in the AFCA poll. Nothing in the statistics suggests domination - 6th in scoring offense, 8th in scoring defense, 10th in total offense, 9th in total defense. What does stand is turnover margin (+12), red zone offense 4th, and red zone defense (2nd) - the Bronchos just didn't beat themselves. The offense returns their top skill players, but must replace three 2nd team All LSC North linemen. On defense, the defensive line and linebackers each return two all LSC North performers, but the secondary must replace three who received postseason honors last fall.
The Bronchos came within one big play of upsetting Pitt State last year. The defense did their part, containing the powerful Gorilla offense, and forcing 5 turnovers. The offense was unable to convert those opportunities, and PSU held on for a 16-12 victory. Despite returning so few on offense, Pitt State has proven through the years that they can reload the offense with little to no disruption. Their defense should be even better this year. With the game in Pittsburg, Kansas, that spells for a long day for UCO.
Pitt State 38-17
#3 Delta State at #24 Texas A&M-Kingsville
Coach Ron Roberts expects an offensive showcase as the Statesmen come to Kingsville for the first meeting between the two teams. Delta State was 2nd in the GSC in scoring (36.2 per game) and total offense (471 yards per game). They are led by Garrett DeWitt, who threw for 3,277 yds and 28 TDs last season. His favorite target is Trevar Deed, who rushed for 608 yards and 8 TDs and caught 78 passes for 879 yards and 7 TDs. Several DI transfers at WR should keep pass defenses honest. The offensive line returns four starters, led by All GSC Pete Vaesau, and preseason selections Jason Donnal and Brad Latham. Six starters return on defense, including All American Lardester Hicks-Green. The defense was 2nd in yards allowed (318) but did allow 26.3 points per contest. The run defense was especially tough, giving up just 83 yards per game, while teams passed for 235. DSU finished last season 10-2, losing to IAA McNeese State in the season opener, and to #5 North Alabama in the national quarterfinals.
The Javelinas come into the contest with almost all of the offense and defense returning intact. They averaged 31.3 points and 430 yards per game. Billy Garza (2,787 yds 23 TDs) returns as does Ryan Lincoln (48-740 4 TDs) and Damian Couthren ( 38-606 5 TDs). TAMK also returns their complete starting offensive line, but must replace leading rusher Billy Martin. Seven starters return for a defense that led the LSC in rushing defense (80 yds per game), but was only 11th against the pass (260 yds per game). Overall they placed 6th in yards allowed (340) and 5th in points given up (24.6).
On paper the teams seem very similar, pass-oriented, but with running games that defenses have to respect. The defenses were good at stopping the run, but only average on pass defense. While we think Kingsville will be improved this season, the Statesmen are probably still a bit better. DSU 35-31
#1 Grand Valley State at #12 West Texas A&M
If you want an early season test to see where you stand, why not schedule the best? The Lakers have 4 titles since 2002, and are annual contenders to win it all. The offense led the GLIAC with 38.5 points per game, and showed great balance (228 yds rushing, 201 passing). QB Brad Iciek returns for his senior season. He has thrown for 5,267 yds and 63 TDs in his career, and has been the GV starter the past two seasons. His top target is Blake Smolen (76 career receptions for 1,303 yds, 3,937 all purpose yards). Junior James Berezik will be back at RB - he has 2,424 yds and 23 TDs in two seasons. The offensive line must replace three starters, but is consistently one of the best in the nation. On defense, Preseason All-American Danny Richard and Alex Gilde anchor the line, all three linebackers, and both safeties are back. The Lakers limited teams to just 12.7 points and 279 yards per game in 2008.
On the other hand, West Texas A&M will be sporting fresh faces in numerous spots. QB Taylor Harris will take over for St. Louis Ram QB Keith Null, and Kelvin Thompson will step in at RB for the injured Keithon Flemming. At WR, AJ Ruffins leads a host of newcomers in trying to replace Charly Martin, Seth Hayden and Carl Johnson. The line has the most returnees, led by J'Marcus Webb. Defensively, 4 of the front 7 return, but the loss of Jared Brock leaves a huge hole. The defense was very good against every team, with the glaring exception of ACU. They will be facing a different offense than they are used to seeing - one that is not flashy, but very efficient and experienced.
The pass defense of Grand Valley allowed just 163 yards per game last year, so it will be very interesting to see how they fare against the WT aerial circus. This will be a good test for both teams, but GV just has too many returnees this year. GVSU 38-31
Game of the Week
#2 Northwest Missouri at #6 Abilene Christian
It doesn't get any better than this, does it? The two top teams in Super Region 4 squaring off in the season opener, with a rematch later in the season a distinct possibility. The teams split last year's games, with ACU taking the opener in Maryville 44-27, and NW returning the in Abilene 45-36 in the national quarterfinals. Blake Bolles will take over at QB for the Bearcats. In spot duty last year, Bolles completed 72% of his passes for 546 yds and 6 TDs, while rushing for 356 yds and 6 more TDs. LaRon Council returns at RB - he rushed for 1,739 yards and 35 TDs last year. Abe Qaoud and Nick Rhodes are the top returning receivers (combined 75-1,035 10 TDs). Four offensive linemen have to be replaced. On defense, the Wildcats will see 9 players that started against them in the playoff game. That defense led the MIAA allowing just 19.2 points and 301 yards per game.
ACU will have a lot of new faces on offense - especially at the skill positions. At QB, Zach Stewart is expected to get the start, but Clark Harrell could figure in as well. With no more Bernard Scott at RB, OU transfer Justin Johnson, Daryl Richardson and Reggie Brown all look to contribute. Edmund Gates returns at WR, but will need some help to keep defenses from doubling up on him all the time. The offensive line should give whoever gets the nod at QB time to throw, while opening holes for the running backs. All American Tony Washington, Trevis Turner and Royland Tubbs all return as starters. On defense, Aston Whiteside and Bryson Lewis return on the line, backed up by Fred Thomspon and Eric Edwards at LB, who are in turn backed up by Tony Harp, Drew Cuffee and Richard Havins in the secondary. ACU also added several transfers who will try and work their way into the mix.
This should be a doozy. Both teams have new faces in key spots on offense, but NW returns the bulk of a stingy defense that slowed down the 2008 blitzkrieg offense of ACU. That signals another NW victory to us. NWMSU 38-28
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