Thursday, September 24, 2009

LSC Scoop Game Previews - Week 5

Finally, a perfect 7-0 week. Season to date, we are at 26-8. Maybe we can make it two in a row.

Last Week's Games
Tarleton 35, Central Oklahoma 17 - This was a 4 point game with under 13 minutes to play.
Angelo State 29, East Central 9 - Five Ram turnovers kept this from a blowout.
Eastern New Mexico 76, Texas A&M-Commerce 56 - Over 1,300 yards of offense AND 16 punts???
Abilene Christian 33, Southeastern Oklahoma 14 - ACU led 31-0 before cruising in.
Texas A&M-Kingsville 31, Northeastern State 14 - 9 of NSU's possessions were 4 or fewer plays.
Midwestern State 49, Incarnate Word 7 - Mustangs get TDs on 5 of last 7 possessions

This Week's Games
#13 Southwestern Oklahoma at #3 Tarleton State - Mismatch of the Week
The Texans come into the game ranked #14 by both the AFCA and D2football.com, while the Bulldogs have yet to win a ballgame. SWO dropped last week's game to West Texas 41-15, giving up 4 TDs in the second quarter, continuing a season long trend that has seen the Bulldogs outscored by an average of 31-5 in the first half of their ball games. Quarterback Steve Day eclipsed the 6,000 yard mark for his career, but this season has been a struggle for him, with 11 interceptions and just 2 TD passes. Johnathan Haggerty became SWO's all time leader in receptions (138) and receiving yards (2,230).

Tarleton State found themselves in a tight ballgame with UCO, holding a narrow 21-17 with 12:41 to play in the ballgame. The offense responded with a 14 play 76 yard drive for a TD, and the defense stopped UCO on the ensuing possession, giving the offense a short field for the final TD. TSU rested star running back Roderick Smith (sprained MCL), but Evan Robertson (86 yards rushing, 1 TD) and Scott Grantham (310 yards passing, 3 TDs) picked up the slack. Devin Guinn and Jahmeel Hobson combined for 15 receptions, 230 yards and all 3 TD catches. Marcus Phillips led the defense with 8 tackles and had an interception to seal the win.

Roderick Smith has indicated he is ready to go this weekend, but in all reality the Texans could sit him the whole game and have him ready to go for the LSC South games coming up. TSU in a romp 42-7

#12 East Central at #11 Northeastern State
Both teams come into the game 0-4, and both have played brutal schedules. ECU seems to have settled on Josh Phillips at QB, but could only gain 172 yards against Angelo State last weekend. Phillips is completing just 44% of his passes and has 2 TDs and 3 Ints. The running game has been almost non-existant, averaging just 39 yards per game, and with only one back averaging more than 2.1 yds per carry. The Tigers have struggled worse than SWO in the first half, outscored by a 113-2 margin.

In comparison, the Riverhawks have looked pretty good, suffering one blowout to Midwestern State, and losing three others by respectable scores. Woody Wilson had his best game passing at TAMK, completing 10-14 passes for 139 yards and 2 TDs. He also was the leading rusher with 56 yards. The defense was on the ropes, holding TAMK to just 31 points, but giving up 530 yards and 25 first downs.

Looks like the Riverhawks will get their first win, NSU 24-10.

NAIA Northwestern Oklahoma at #6 Southeastern Oklahoma
NWO is 2-1 this season, with wins over Colorado State-Pueblo and Southwestern Assemblies of God. They are rushing for 271 yards per game, and passing for 132. The player to watch on offense is running back Nate Guillory, who is averaging 151 yards per game. Guillory was an All American at Coffeyville CC and had signed with Iowa in 2008. The defense has given up just 258 yards per game, 38 rushing and 220 passing.

If its an odd numbered game, the Savage Storm should put some big points on the scoreboard. They are 2-0, averaging 51.5 points so far in two odd games. Justin Pitrucha relieved Dallas McCutcheon for the second time this season, going 24-32 for 225 yards and 2 TDs against ACU's tough defense. A week after shredding ENMU's defense for 184 yards rushing, Baylen Laury was held to just 22 yards on 11 carries. Daniel Nichols continues to have a fine senior season, with 23 receptions for 319 yards and 6 TDs. The defense continues to struggle - 11th in the LSC in yards allowed and 10th in scoring defense.

Consider this a final tuneup game for SOSU before starting LSC North play next weekend. SOSU 45-28

#9 Eastern New Mexico at #1 Abilene Christian
ENMU's high flying offense vs. ACU's stingy defense - if you enjoy a clash of opposites, this will be a game to watch. The Greyhounds lead the LSC with 48 points, 669 total yards and 593 passing yards per game. ACU is giving up just 13 points, 249 total yards and 217 passing yards per game. Somethings gotta give. Common opponents don't give much insight - ENMU did better against TAMC, but ACU handily defeated an SOSU team that beat ENMU the week before.

JJ Harp had his second straight 600 yard passing game against Texas A&M-Commerce last week. Better yet, he threw 5 TD passes and 0 Ints. Even better, the Greyhounds won, 76-56. Harp now has over 2,300 yards and 14 TD passes through 4 games. ENMU has also shown they can run the ball some - 10th in the LSC in rushing, and only Tarleton and TAMK have more rushing TDs. The defense still needs to improve - history has shown teams cannot expect to win big games with offense alone. ENMU is giving up 35 points and 427 yards per game. Rodney Mitchell is doing his part leading the nation with 5 interceptions.

While ACU has given up 217 yards a game through the air, it is mainly due to teams not being able to run the ball on them (32 yards per game, and just 1.2 per carry). Ashton Whiteside is tops in the conference with 5.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for losses. The offense continues to be efficient - the Wildcats are just 9th in yards gained, but are 5th in scoring. Daryl Richardson has emerged as the leading rusher for the LSC's third best ground attack.

Though this is not the game of the week, it sure should be a fun. What could be a deciding factor is experience - this will be the biggest college game ever for the Greyhounds, while ACU has playoff and top 10 game experience under their belts. ACU wins 42-24

#7 Central Oklahoma at #10 Texas A&M-Commerce
Big matchup between the preseason picks to compete for the LSC North. While the teams are a combined 1-7, they will still be in the mix for the North title. UCO stood toe to toe with nationally ranked Tarleton for 3+ quarters, before the Texans got a TD and a failed UCO 4th down convervsiona led to the final TSU touchdown. UCO is in the middle to lower half of the LSC statistically, but that is a direct result of playing four ranked teams (WT was ranked at the time they played). Brandon Noohi has yet to find his 2008 groove. He has one TD and one Int in each game so far this year. Jason Palmer is 3rd in the LSC with 89 rushing yards per game and Matt Jackson is 5th in receptions. The defense has given up 35 points and 448 yards per game, but look for those numbers to improve markedly in divisional play.

How much can playing ENMU skew your statistics? The Lions' defense went from 9th to 12th in yards allowed, and from 6th to 12th in scoring defense in one week, while the offense piled up 570 yards and 56 points (through the games they had totaled 566 and 28 respectively). It does look like they settled on a QB - Adam Farkes set a TAMC record with 447 yards passing. The running game, the strength of the Lions offense the past few years, is still 11th in the league, but as with UCO, should improve as the toughest streatch of TAMC's schedule is behind them.

The winner of this game gets a leg up in the LSC North race. Both teams have played well at times, but have been overmatched. This game could go either way, but UCO has played better against a tougher schedule. UCO 31-21

#2 Texas A&M-Kingsville at #8 West Texas A&M
This was a preseason game of the week and possible game of the year, but has lost its luster with WT's 0-3 start to the season. The Javelinas were methodical, if not explosive, last week defeating Northeastern State 31-14, outgaining them by a 530-241 margin. Billy Garza threw for 314 yards and 2 TDs, completing 75% of his passes. For the season, he is hittin on 65% of his passes for 1,030 yards and 8 TDs despite playing just one complete game. His 8 TD passes have gone to 7 different receivers. The running game added 216 yards, and is 2nd in the conference with 194 per game. The defense continues to shine early on - 4th in points allowed and 3rd in yards given up. The pass defense has shown great improvement, giving up just 136 yards per game, and allowing just 50% of passes to be completed.

The Buffaloes broke into the victory column last week with a 41-15 win over Southwestern Oklahoma. Running back Kelvin Thompson led the way with 132 yards rushing and 39 receiving. He is currently 4th in the LSC with 86 yards rushing per game and 8th in all-purpose yards with 117 per game. Despite the big game, WT is still 6th in total yards and 8th in scoring. The defense also had their best game, holding a team under 24 points for the first time this year. Bryan Braman had 4 tackles for losses, including 3 sacks resulting in 23 yards of losses. Overall WT is giving up 28 points and 381 yards per game.

At full strength, West Texas would have a big challenge at home this week, and they haven't been at full strength this year. TAMK wins in Canyon 31-17

#4 Midwestern State at #5 Angelo State - Game of the Week
On the flip side, this matchup moved up from a likely third best for week 5 to the game of the week. One factor has been Midwestern State's total dominance of their early opponents. Another is Angelo State's 3-0 record against D2 teams so far. Neither team has faced a contending D2 team, so this will be the first big test for both.

The Mustangs have dominated their opposition like no other LSC team this season. Their average margin of victory is 40 points and while they have outgained teams by a 2-1 margin. While the level of competition has been less than stellar, the Mustangs have still been impressive. Zack Eskridge is the top rated QB in the LSC (195.3) and has thrown for 1,011 yards and 14 TDs, while only throwing 2 Ints. Four receivers have 10+ catches and 100+ receiving yards, led by Andy Tanner (22-369 and 5 TDs). Marcus Mathis is the leading rusher with 73 yards per game and an impressive 7.1 per carry. The defense has been even better than the offense, giving up just 209 yards and 4 points per game. The pass defense has been especially impressive - teams are averaging under 100 yards per game passing, and the pass efficiency rating for opposing QBs is 50.8. MSU is second in the LSC with 13 sacks and are tops with 12 forced turnovers.

The 29-9 final score last week was much closer than it should have been for the Rams. They outgained ECU 419-172 and only allowed one drive of more than 31 yards. But they lost four fumbles and had a pass intercepted. If they do that this week, they will find themselves in a deep deficit. Josh Neiswander is having a great season, hitting 65% of his passes for 273 yards per game and has 12 TDs and just 2 Ints. V'Keon Lacey is among the LSC leaders with 30 catches for 428 yards and 3 TDs. Dwight Pete and Michael Simpers are combining for 109 yards rushing per game, and have 5 TDs. The defense is continuing last season's leap forward, giving up just 19 points and 265 yards per game, both 5th in the LSC. The Rams lead the LSC with 14 sacks, and are third with 8 Ints. Calvin Fance and D'Angelo Waites are second and third in the LSC in sacks, and Markeith Jones and Logan Bryan are second and fourth in interceptions.

The Rams are making a bid to be the surprise team of the year, and shoot up the LSC ala 2005, while the Mustangs are looking to convert some who downplay their fast start. Both teams have really good QBs, good running games and solid defenses. Angelo State has seen better competition than Midwestern State has, and if they can hold on to the ball this week, should pull out a close victory at home. ASU in a mild upset 24-17

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