Special Contributor: Don Garrett
We are about half-way through season for the harriers. I wanted to wait until each of the teams had run in 2-3 meets before taking another look at how things are shaping up. On the men’s side, the big story is how much better ENMU appears to be this season. They were 7th in 2008, but they have a legit chance to move into the top 4, based on the first half of the season.
On each team, I have put the original prediction I made before the first meet and then the revised prediction, based on early reports:
ACU – picked to win it all and I will stick with that prediction
The Wildcats got beat in the first meet of the year – a dual meet with 14th ranked Alaska-Anchorage, running in Alaska. However, looking at the results, they did not take 5 of their potential top 7. At the Pre-National meet this past weekend in Indiana, they still left 2-3 runners at home and finished 4th in a strong field. Two of their Kenyans have run (Amos Sang and Cleophas Tanui), but defending LSC champ Daniel Maina has yet to make an appearance. Plus they are waiting for their 2 new internationals (Peters from Wales and Rybicki from France) to gain eligibility. The good news for the Wildcats is that freshman Colby Delbene, from Pawling, NY, finished 11th in a super field in Indiana and sophomore Jake Schofield has improved dramatically.
TARLETON – picked 2nd and I will stay with that prediction as well
The Texans have only run 1 meet thus far, so it is hard to get a good fix on them. Both Jared McNeil and Westyn Rosiles looked good in that first meet and my prediction that Gerzain Valenzuela would improve drastically this season is proving to be right on target. However we have not yet seen McMurry transfer Steve Cantwell or returner Kendall Styles this year. TSU needs someone to step up in that 4th and 5th spot to contend with ACU and to even hang onto that runner-up sport.
TEXAS A&M COMMERCE – picked 3rd and will stay there for now
Team leader Tyler Tindell is running very well. Gerardo Delafuente has also run pretty well at the first two meets. The biggest surprise to me for the Lions has been a rapid ascendance of Brandon Womack (43rd in 2008) as a potential top-20 conference runner. And, freshman Nathan Whitel, from Wills Point, is showing some good potential. However, the big drawback for TAMU-C thus far is that Robert Reed (8th in 2008) has not run at all. TAMU-C will have a hard time hanging onto 3rd without Reed.
EAST CENTRAL – picked for 4th and I will leave them there, but they could easily move as high as 2nd
ECU has reloaded well after losing 2 of their top 4 kids from 2008. Jimmy Sutrick is running well in their #1 spot, but the real addition has been Joel Dutton, who was injured in 2008, but who finished 19th in the LSC meet in 2007. His return has been huge for the Tigers. Transfer Chase McMichael, from Caddo HS and Missouri Valley College (a NAIA school) is running well. But, where is Daniel Kiptoo? He has not run this year, though still listed on the roster. They need him. Also, the UTA transfer, Armando Saldivar, is running well at 2 of their meets, but he is running unattached. Not sure if he is waiting to eligibility clearance or if he will have to wait all school year. Saldivar would help this team immensely.
EASTERN NEW MEXICO – I picked them 8th, but this is like a whole new team and I have moved them up to 5th
Wow, what a difference a year can make. The Greyhounds #1 runner from 2008 is running about #5 to #7 on this year’s team and that is a SERIOUS upgrade. Richard Kogo is running #1 – a kid who ran on the track in 2009 (6th LSC 1500), but did not run XC in 2008 for them. Freshman Jacob Lozano, from Hobbs (6th NM 5A XC in 2008) and Patrick Lueras, from Los Lunas (13th NM 5A XC in 2008) are running extremely well. JC transfer Luis Aguirre, a kid from El Paso who ran for El Paso CC and finished 20th at the JC national meet a year ago, is also running well. ENMU is like a whole new team and they should make the biggest move at the conference meet and a move to 5th place may be far too conservative!
ANGELO STATE – picked 5th, but I have now moved them back to 6th
The Rams have looked okay, but they have not run against stiff competition yet. Top three returnees Nate Gonzales, Brian Carroll and Shannon Cunningham seem to be running fine and freshman Isac Valdez, from Forney, looks to be an improvement over their past #4-#5 runners, but there does not appear to be a kid who can really help Angelo move way up.
CAMERON – picked 6th and now moved back to 7th
Still a mystery team. They have gotten a boost for transfers Josh Stewart (TR from ECU) and Julius Korir (TR from Lindenwood). Those 2 have pushed 2008 #1 Mohamed Khelelfa back to the #3 spot. Casey Kreger will also help after redshirting in 2008 due to injury. But, so far, I have not seen a strong #5 from Cameron. AND, I have not seen David Barmasai at all – a former JC national champ in the steeple on the track, he would really make this team contend, but I am not sure if he is still on the team.
WEST TEXAS A&M – picked 7th , but now moved to 8th
They have gotten their butts kicked by ENMU already this year, including once at their home meet, the WT Stampeded. Freshman Joey Villareal has been a nice pickup – 5th at the Region I-4A in 2008 for Canyon Randall. But, this team is very, very young and so far has run like it. I still have not seen any sign of Albert Maina (a Kenyan) or Andrew Sanders (TR from Iowa Western). This team looks to be 1-2 years away.
TEXAS A&M-KINGSVILLE – picked 9th and will probably stay there
The Javelinas are actually MUCH improved over 2008. Their top runner from 2008, Kiya Dandena, has shown great improvement and their #1 runner from 2007, Daniel Castro, is back with the team and running well. Their #3 guy, Margarito Carona, graduated from high school in 2005 and I don’t know where he has been for the past 4 years. He is runnig decently. However, don’t forget that last year TAMU-K had the 4 bottom kids in the whole LSC race. They should improve over that showing in 2009, but probably not enough to move out of the cellar. However, with the bottom 2 teams in 2008 both making big improvements in 2009, the conference meet should be much more balanced.
Midterm report for LSC Women’s Cross Country
There will be a great deal of movement in the women’s team from the pre-season predictions. Lots of key runners did not return. It looks to me like ALL of the Oklahoma teams are improved over 2008 and several key Texas teams (ACU, WTAMU) have lost lots of ground from past years.
MIDWESTERN – picked 1st and will undoubtedly stay there
The best team in the conference in 2009 by a long shot and that is despite they lost their #1 runner from last year, Katie Stepp, who graduated last may and decided not to return to take her last semester of XC eligbility. MWSU also lost another of their top 5 from 2008 – Brittany Barrington, the former Throckmorton Greyhound. However, Midwestern added the best new recruit of the year, Sydnee Cole, from Butler County JC and she is running lights-out. Returnees Lindsey Pate, Kayla Handrix, and Hassie Sutton are running well, plus 2008 redshirt Julie Bell is running extremely well. Freshmen Cynthia Carrillo and Heather Owens are also solid additions. This team is very deep and should run off and hide from the field at the conference meet.
UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA – picked 3rd, but I am moving them up to 2nd
Top 2 runners – Alina Istrate and Evelyn Berko – return and are running well. Angelica Martinez, who was 4th in the OK 6A 3200 in 2008 on the track, is running extremely well as their #3. Freshmen Angel Vick, Cara Cox, and Hannah Pempsell are having the problems you expect from young kids, but generally appear to be conference-competitive. I think UCO and ECU fight it out for 2nd.
EAST CENTRAL – picked 4th, but moving up to 3rd
Speaking of ECU, they are getting good upperclass leadership from Sarah Reihart, but I have not seen any sign of Sylvia Barkechir, who was 14th at the 2008 conference meet. They are also getting good production from freshmen Hayley Jennings, from Broken Arrow; Andrea McKinney, from Sand Springs, and Miranda Claxton, from right there in Ada. If Barkechir returns to run by conference time, this team could contend for 2nd.
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA – picked 7th, but I am moving them up to 4th
Big improvement, led by freshman Chelsey Dillon (from Mabank, TX) who has already gotten runner of the week this year. She looks like the real deal. Also, excellent production from freshman Sarah Hix, from Tahlequah – as the 2 freshmen have run 1-2 for SWOSU at each meet. Returnees Patty Murphy and Melissa Banks are also running well. If freshman Tatum Hofman, from Altus, continues to run well, this team could even fight for 2nd place.
ANGELO STATE – picked 5th and staying at that spot
Angelo really needs returnees Brittney Heath and Paige Massengill to pick up the pace – Heath has run reasonably well, but they need both of these women to improve over 2008. Freshman Emeline Crutcher, from tiny Wellman-Union, has been their best runner to date, running against rather weak competition in 2 meets. The Rambelles still need to find solid #4 and #5 runners to stay in that 5th spot, but I am keeping them there for the time being.
EASTERN NEW MEXICO – originally picked 9th, but moving up to 6th
Like the ENMU men, the Zias are MUCH better than in 2008, helped by their #1 runner, Nicky Reid, who ran on the track in 2009(7th LSC 800), but did not run XC last fall. Jerri Martin is again running well and the Zias have help from JC transfer Samantha Draper. They won the WT Stampede and seem to be capable of moving up to close to the midway point of the conference.
WEST TEXAS A&M – picked 2nd, I see a BIG SLIDE to 7th
On paper in the preseason, WTAMU looked very solid, returning Jennifer Cherono (3rd in 2008), Kristi Hartsfield (11th in 2008) and Becca Rapstine (28th in 2008). None of these 3 women are on the roster any longer! Now, only one of their top 5 return, Allie Reyna, and she has run in only meet thus far. They got whipped at their home meet by ENMU. Freshmen Nicole Hudgins, from Kaufman, and Brieann Garcia, from Canyon, are running pretty well. Aries Bazaldua, a top recruit from Canyon, led their effort in their first meet, then has not run a time since that meet. Suddenly this team becomes very vulnerable for a big drop in the standings.
ACU – picked 7th, but that might be too generous – moved them to 8th
Painful to see the Wildcats struggling so mightily. They went to Alaska-Anchorage and got pounded in a dual meet. Then they ran behind Midwestern, Incarnate Work, East Central, Southwest Oklahoma and even D-III McMurry (they aren’t even the best team in Abilene anymore) at the Missouri Southern Stampede. Lead runner, Chloe Susset from France, has run okay, but does not appear to be a true #1 yet. Their next 4 kids are all walkon types. Right now, it appears that #8 in the rankings might be overly generous.
TARLETON STATE – picked 8th and moved to 9th
Can’t tell much because they have not run a single XC meet yet. I guess they will run a 2-3 meet season. They could be much better than 9th, but no way to tell until they get out there and run in competition.
TAMU-COMMERCE – picked 10th and staying there
The Lions are getting excellent production from one of their unheralded freshmen, Maci Bradford, and solid efforts from their returning #1 runner, Kate Donovan (although Bradford has beaten Donovan in both meets this year). Still a big drop from Donovan and Bradford to the next 3-4 runners.
TAMU-KINGSVILLE – picked 11th and staying there
Much better than 2008, mostly because their #1 from 2008 (Jessica Martinez) and #1 from 2007 (Erica Alvarado, who finished 4th in the LSC 1500 and 5th in the 5K in 2009) are both running this year. Like the men’s team, the Javs are getting help from a senior on the roster who has not run for TAMUK in the past, in this case Xochitl Gomez, who did finish 5th in the LSC 800 in 2009. Definitely improved team, but not enough to move into the top half at the conference meet.
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA – picked 12th and will stay there
This doesn’t mean that SEO is not much better than in 2008, but they undoubtedly are. Freshman Shayna McCormick, from Garland Naaman Forest, is running well as their #1 runner. Their returnees are running better than in 2008. Still a long ways to go to move into a top 6 school at conference, but this appears to be first step toward legitimacy.
The next few weeks will see some big meets that will sort out the pretenders from the contenders, both men and women – particularly the Cowboy Jamboree in Stillwater and the Chile Pepper Run in Fayetteville. I will try to post one last wrapup prior to conference.
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